4th Quarter Outlook - New regime, New opportunities, and the War in Israel

The War in Israel

We first take stock following the horrific attacks in Israel. Before we dig into the analysis of markets and the impacts, let us begin by saying that our thoughts are with the many thousands of people affected by this tragedy, especially those who have loved ones kidnapped, killed, or who had to flee their homes. The stories, photos, and videos coming out of Israel are heart wrenching. If your family, or your friends have been affected our thoughts are with you. As a trusted steward of our clients assets, we are monitoring the impact to global commodity, stock, bond, and currency markets which thus far have had a relatively muted reactions.

Overall markets are adjusting to the new regime and its implications - especially higher macro economic volatility - as the recent sharp rise in bond yields shows. We look through the short-term noise to tap into the abundant - yet different - investment opportunities on offer. In particular, we get granular within asset classes and harness mega forces.

Holding tight

Markets have come around to the view that central banks will not quickly ease policy in a world shaped by supply constraints. We see them keeping policy tight and to lean against inflationary pressures.

Pivoting to new opportunities

Higher macro economic and market volatility has brought more divergent security performance relative to the broader market. Benefiting from this requires granularity and nimbleness.

Harnessing mega forces

The new regime is shaped by five structural forces we think are poised to create big shifts in profitability across economies and sectors. The key is identifying catalysts that can supercharge them and whether the shifts are priced by markets today.

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This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. This material may contain estimates and forward-looking statements, which may include forecasts and do not represent a guarantee of future performance. This information is not intended to be complete or exhaustive and no representations or warranties, either express or implied, are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. The opinions expressed are as of October 12, 2023 and are subject to change without notice. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investing involves risks.